The analyzes were made by Tatyana Yavorovitch for Suspline. Their assessments, opinions and comments on the topic do not reflect the position of BulgarianMilitary.com
KYIV, ($1=29.41 Ukrainian Hryvnias) — It is noted that there are “quite a few indicators” that show the preparations for an attack on Moldova soon, whose army has only 3,250 soldiers. In particular, Ukrainian intelligence recorded some activity at the airport in Tiraspol, the de facto capital of unrecognized Transnistria. Sources say Russia plans to land IL-76 transport planes and helicopters in Transnistria flying from occupied Crimea.
At the same time, riots and protests are planned in Chisinau. However, according to the publication, this information contradicts the analysis of Western intelligence agencies that Russia does not have enough opportunities to fly safely over Ukraine’s air defenses in the Odesa region.
Also, for the supply of ammunition and the transfer of Russian troops, it is necessary to create a land corridor from the conquered Kherson through the Nikolaev and Odesa regions, meeting the resistance of Ukrainian forces.
It is reported that Russia may try to attack Moldova closer to Victory Day on May 9. On this day, Russian resident Vladimir Putin may declare that Russia recognizes the independence of Transnistria, which will lead to a repetition of the “Donbas scenario” and will be a direct threat and violation of Moldova’s territorial integrity.
“We believe that the Kremlin has already decided to attack Moldova. What the events in Moldova will lead to will be crucial for us. If the Russians manage to take control of the country, we [Ukraine – ed.] Will become more vulnerable militarily, this will be a threat to the integrity of Ukraine,” said a Ukrainian intelligence official.
“After that, they will supply a large number of weapons, and then they will want to join Russia,” he added.
According to the sources of the publication, the conquest of Moldova will lead to the fact that Russian troops will move to the port of Odesa from the west.
Military analysts Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds of the Royal Joint Institute for Defense Research say Russia’s military operation has three goals:
- to withdraw part of the Ukrainian troops on the southwestern front;
- to suspend the pro-European course of the current Moldovan government;
- to frighten the West that support for Ukraine could lead to further destabilization in the region, especially in the Balkans.
What is known
- On May 1, a spokesman for the Odessa military administration, Serhiy Bratchuk, said that after provocations in unrecognized Transnistria, people were moving toward Moldova. Some of them go to the Odessa region.
- On April 25, several explosions occurred in the building of the so-called Ministry of State Security in the territory of the unrecognized Transnistrian Moldovan Republic.
- According to Major General of the Security Service of Ukraine Viktor Yagun, the Russian Federation is behind the explosions. Thus, she tried to destabilize the situation in the region, but to no avail.
- According to Ukrainian intelligence, a large circulation of the Transnistrian newspaper, dated May 2, 2022, was printed on the territory of the so-called “Transnistrian Moldavian Republic”. The central material of the newspaper is the “Official address of the residents of Transnistria to the President of the Russian Federation Putin”, in which he calls “to involve the armed forces of the Transnistrian region in the actions of the Russian army.”
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