PANAGYURISHTE, ($1=1.69 Bulgarian Levas) – A few days ago, US President Joe Biden answered a question asked by CNN journalist Anderson Cooper whether the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by China. Biden replied, “Yes, we have a commitment to do that.”
Biden went further in his speech, telling a broad audience of the TV channel that the United States is the most powerful army in the world and “Russia, China, and the whole world know this.”
Biden loves to talk and emphasize the superiority of Americans over the world. Another issue is that very often his words do not overlap with reality. Look at Afghanistan – the US president has stated emphatically that Kabul is in safe hands and there is no way a 330,000 army can fall at the feet of 70,000 Taliban. We already know what happened.
Another example of the US administration’s lack of orientation, in reality, is the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Many members of the US Senate and Congress, as well as Biden and Donald Trump, have stated emphatically that Russia’s monopoly on natural gas production and transportation to Europe will be interrupted that Nord Stream 2 will be sanctioned, but again – we saw what happened.
Is Joe Biden’s statement serious?
US President Joe Biden’s remarks are ambiguous. It is not clear from his answer – how exactly will the United States defend Taiwan? There are two probabilities.
The first possibility is that the United States will continue to negotiate, sell and deliver its latest weapons technology to Taiwan, as it has done so far.
The second possibility – the United States to participate with its equipment, troops, and intelligence in a direct conflict between Taiwan and China.
There is a third probability, which is half, ie. with the help of satellite support, the United States to provide intelligence on the movement and deployment of Chinese troops, and military equipment.
However, such a categorical statement by Joe Biden is not serious about the audience – the one in the United States and the world. It is not diplomatic, it is not well thought out, which calls into question whether Biden listens to his advisers, or whether his advisers correctly rely on the political and economic situation in the world or the Indian Pacific region.
Such a statement takes us back to the Cold War when the economic situation itself was radically different – a Western market built on competition and capabilities, and an Eastern market, which was dictated by the USSR and was a closed circle of trade relations. Then, such a statement made sense, because the very signal it carries with it speaks of a change in political and economic relations around the world. Today the world is different and China is present.
The forgotten facts
Taiwan has its currency, widely accepted passport, postage stamps, Internet TLD, armed forces, and a constitution with an independently elected president. However, Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations and does not have observer status in the organization. The reason for this is China’s policy.
On October 25, 1971, UN Resolution 2758 was adopted by 76 votes to 35, with 17 abstentions, recognizing the People’s Republic of China as China’s sole representative to the United Nations. Countries that support China are France, India, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union, and some of the abstaining countries are Japan and the United States.
Taiwan has formal diplomatic relations with 14 of the 193 UN member states and the Holy See. These are the so-called official diplomatic channels. In addition, many other countries maintain informal diplomatic ties through missions and institutions in Taiwan.
Notice which are the 14 countries that have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan and recognize the de facto independence of the island nation – Guatemala, Honduras, the Holy See, Haiti, Paraguay, Nicaragua, Eswatini, Tuvalu, Nauru, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Kitts, and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Belize, Marshall Islands, Balau.
China’s influence on recognizing Taiwan as a separate and independent country is enormous. China keeps all international organizations in check, forcing them not to grant Taiwan membership through politics and economics. Sometimes this barrier is overcome, but only if different names of Taiwan are used, which are again after agreement with China.
This is more of an internal conflict than an international one
In reality, if a war breaks out between the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan, it will be more of an internal conflict than a war between two countries. The UN will not support the United States and will try to prevent a war with diplomacy, trying to restore peace and return the two countries to their original position.
Russia is likely to take a neutral position, as will most UN members but will continue co-operation between Moscow and Beijing on the axis of military co-operation in production and know-how.
Much of Europe will remain neutral, and so will Central and South America. Britain and Japan are also unlikely to support the United States.
Taiwan will be abandoned by the United Nations and the world, forcing the United States to do the same. The very fact that the United States has no official diplomatic relations with Taiwan eloquently leads us to the outcome of this conflict.
The United States, Europe, and the world cannot send troops and military equipment to defend Taiwan. It will be a serious propaganda tool in the hands of Beijing, Moscow, and other opponents of Washington. This will lead to serious inflation and an economic crisis all over the world, on an unimaginable scale.
China is strong economically and that matters
After the United States, China is the world’s second-largest economy in terms of gross domestic product. The difference between the first two countries is minimal, while the difference between the second and third (Japan) is huge.
However, the influence of the Chinese economy on the world economic index is greater than that of the United States. China’s trade and foreign exchange trade worldwide is greater than that of the Americans.
Let’s not forget another important factor – the United States and China continue to trade, despite the economic sanctions that countries have exchanged in recent years. A war between the two countries, at the expense of a third (Taiwan), will be devastating for the standard of living in the two countries, for the price of their currency, for their economy and production.
If these two countries suffer, the whole world will suffer economically. The world will go back at least 100 years and start rebuilding its markets. Millions will die more from hunger, and misery than from the war itself, which is likely to take tens of thousands.
Biden’s last lie
No, the United States does not have the most powerful army in the world. This statement was valid 30-40 years ago. The words of US President Joe Biden are most likely dictated by one fact – the US has the largest military budget in the world (750-770 billion USD), which does not mean that it has the most powerful army.
China has the second-largest military budget in the world and has shown a new generation of weapons in recent years. We cannot say what the capabilities of Chinese weapons technology are, but we can say that they exist, that so far China and the United States have not faced each other in a confrontation, and that the outcome of this confrontation is unclear militarily.
The United States, the world, and China must find a way to diplomacy, and one of the first steps is to stop heating their political and trade relations.
Otherwise, China will invade Taiwan, and neither the United States nor the rest of the world will be able to help the islanders. Taiwan will remain at the mercy of China.
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