PANAGYURISHTE, (BM) – War between Russia and Turkey is possible, some military experts suggest. In 2020, Russia and Turkey faced direct or indirect military conflict more than once. This fact seems to give a reason in the United States to think that in 2021 a military conflict between the two countries is possible. But is that so?
The author of the American edition of Foreign Policy, Robert Malley, estimated that such a conflict would occupy his ten assumptions’ ninth position. Of course, Malley ranks the conflicts in 2021 as a logical priority. Afghanistan, Ethiopia, the Sahel in North Africa, Yemen, Venezuela, Somalia, Libya, Iran, and the United States. After the “possible war between Russia and Turkey,” climate change is ranked tenth as a possible conflict source.
Logically, if we look at the first seven assumptions, these are territories that are currently still under the sign of war. Even civil disobedience has always been a prerequisite for action. A battle between Iran and the United States is possible, but only if the United States receives broad international support. If Iran’sIran’s behavior continues to be the same as before, it is difficult to assume that the United States will convince its partners of the need for military action. Especially from the fact that American troops are still in the Middle East, far from home.
But why does the United States suggest that a war between Turkey and Russia is possible? The two sides have clashed many times over the last twelve months, but all military action against each other has been very measured and conservative.
Turkey tried to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but abruptly stopped attempts in 2015 after al-Assad received Russia’sRussia’s broad back for protection. Yes, Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet near the Turkish-Syrian border, but so did Russia, and retaliated years later. We remind you that earlier this year, Russian airstrikes killed dozens of Turkish soldiers. That was why the two sides sat down at the table and negotiated. But otherwise, things are going according to plan for both sides in Syria. Turkey has abandoned a coup, Russia has donated “Kurds” and PKK members to Turkey. The United States is no longer there. Israel and Iran continue to wage a proxy war.
Both countries played out a similar scenario in Libya. However, with other main characters, Turkey expects multibillion-dollar deals with the Western-recognized Libyan government with the same minor ones. In contrast, Russia expects the same from Marshal Hahftar’sHahftar’s opposition. Russia and Turkey armed the two warring parties and left them to fight alone. At one point, Egypt could have played a significant role in the Libyan civil war, but it was then that the Libyans decided to figure it out on their own. Military declines have plummeted, leaving Turkey and Russia as foreign observers awaiting their resumption.
The Caucasus proved to be the last confrontation between the two countries. Turkey stood behind Azerbaijan’sAzerbaijan’s ideas; Russia was ready to help Armenia. And the people of Nagorno-Karabakh remained halfway between one evil and the greater evil. However, Nagorno-Karabakh was not Russia’sRussia’s priority. Moscow supplied arms, but it was at the heart of the reconciliation between Azerbaijan and Armenia and Armenia’sArmenia’s capitulation in the war. Why? Russia now has more military influence than before the fighting because it has convinced both Azerbaijan and Armenia that Russian peacekeepers are the solution to peace. In comparison, Turkey wants monitoring of the situation, but not on the spot, but from Azerbaijani bases.
However, Turkey and Russia are not in hostilities. On the contrary, the bond between the two countries is getting more potent than before. In military terms, Turkey buys Russian air defense systems, orders a second shipment, and has the opportunity to work with Russia to develop the same or the next generation of air defense systems. Let’s does not forget that Ankara is trying to make its next-generation fighter, and the biggest problem so far is developing an engine for it. Yes, South Korea is one option, but Ankara is never excluding Moscow from its equation.
Outside the defense industry, Turkey and Russia are carrying out major energy projects with each other. Russia has always looked for several alternatives to supply Europe with gas, and the new one that has emerged has been the Balkan corridor, led by Turkey.
From this angle, it is difficult to imagine that a war could break out between Turkey and Russia. However, in the United States, they believe that Turkey and Russia may sever the connection at some point. Yes, that is a fact. History has witnessed similar scenarios. Perhaps that is why the author in Foreign Policy placed only in ninth place, before a possible natural apocalypse, a conflict between the two countries.
“Still, ties born of opportunity don’t always last. With their respective forces so close to multiple front lines, potential flash points abound. A downturn in their relations could spell trouble for both nations and more than one warzone,” Robert Malley said in his article.
But there is something he does not say and perhaps forgets. Russia is a nuclear country. The second in the world. Can Turkey afford such a battle? As much as we don’t want to admit it, Russia has much more modern, dangerous and sinister weapons.
From another point of view, where will this war be fought? Moscow would not allow the luxury of invading Turkey on its territory. NATO will intervene in this scenario and protect its member. Turkey cannot even think of attacking Russia on Russian soil. This possibility sounds like a trophy statement, but it is impossible.
Over the next twelve months, what is possible is for Turkey and Russia to continue to oppose on different fronts indirectly, either by hiring mercenaries or sending private armies. And rearrange the situation from the side so that both sides win again.
Or maybe the United States wants a war between Turkey and Russia? The desire of Americans has never been more evident than in recent months. Because as long as Turkey keeps Russia engaged on different fronts, the United States and its allies should unravel Russia’s policy, even to loosen it.
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