PANAGYURISHTE, (BM) – Tensions between China and Taiwan have escalated sharply in recent months. The threats followed one after another, especially after Taiwan decided to buy 66 F-16 fighters. China seeks to look strong and powerful by conducting a series of exercises aimed at demonstrating superiority.
However, the goals set before the Chinese government for disarming Taiwan’s air defense ground systems in two hours, followed by an air attack, would be feasible. Is it possible for China to carry out such an attack so quickly and efficiently and to end the Taiwanese resistance quickly within 24 hours?
According to Naval and Merchant Ships magazine, the Chinese government has commissioned a computer simulation of such a scenario, and subsequent simulations have shown that this is entirely achievable and possible.
Analysis of the results shows that China is capable of an intensive artillery and air strike, which will destroy the Taiwanese air defense system within five to ten minutes. It sounds optimistic, but again – it’s just a computer simulation. So, after the “successful” artillery attack on Taiwan’s air defense systems, it would be appropriate to be followed by an air attack by the Chinese Air Force, and as we know, they currently have both Russian-made fighters and their own, mostly the 4th Fighter. the J-16 generation and the fifth-generation J-20 fighter.
What we still know from the published analytical data from the simulation attack is the inclusion of both Chinese aircraft carriers, which would be useful in case of “external” support in favor of Taiwan. It is difficult to predict there, as we are talking about two clear Chinese aircraft carriers and a vague enemy, which can be anyone, with any weapon.
The data concludes that Chinese troops will enter the islands and everything will end quickly.
Everything looks wonderful and possible, according to the Chinese military and the simulation. However, the well-known maxim in the military case “no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy” is also valid in this Chinese scenario.
The data on the optimism with which artillery, air force and landing forces would cope with “possible foreign intervention” are quite doubtful.
China has forgotten that the United States and its partners have really good ground and air equipment to monitor, analyze and assess the situation, and will see the attacks in question before they begin. Deploying specific systems takes time, and the Chinese military has not considered this more than important fact.
Of course, so far only the United States maintains its level of presence in the Pacific, but even that is enough to make timely decisions and measures. Let’s not forget the dozens of American attack platforms located in the same region, especially in places like Guam.
The Pentagon has also positioned dozens of B-2 and B-52 bombers in the region, which, if China has forgotten, regularly carry out various reconnaissance missions. Even the fact that until a month ago Beijing complained about the “near entry” of American aircraft into Chinese airspace under the guise of civilian liners should tell Beijing that this tactic works and can also be used.
“Suppression of foreign interference” by Beijing not only sounds incredible, but it is an absurd statement.
The next statement that the Chinese air force would deal with Taiwanese fighters or air defenses also sounds absurd. Taiwan currently has modern means and weapons technology that would face the Chinese attack without any problems, and would even respond appropriately.
China misses another important fact – Taiwan has an early warning system that could have the opposite effect – no, or very few Chinese missiles will be able to reach the target, let alone destroy it.
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