Deliveries of the T-90M Proryv vary around 130 tanks per year

The Soviet Union was known for its vast tank industry during the frosty era of the Cold War. It produced more tanks than any other country, making over 4000 tanks every year in the 1980s. This production was divided among five main factories, including the Malyshev, Omsktransmash, and the Uralvagonzavod, which were the main creators of T-64s, T-80s, and affordable T-72s.

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Most of these tanks were made for the Soviet Army, but the USSR also exported more tanks than any other nation. With the break-up of the country in 1991, however, domestic tank orders greatly diminished. In fact, the 2010s only saw about 10 orders within the country. But the annual production stayed at around 100 tanks a year for the next 30 years, with the majority being sent abroad.  

In terms of the aircraft industry, Chinese purchases were essential for the Soviet Union during the 90s. Regarding armored vehicles, though, India and Algeria have been the most significant buyers. Both countries have used more new T-90 tanks than the Russian Army did before 2022. 

Important to mention that in the 90s, Iran was a key customer too. However, Moscow had to stop its T-72 export contract to Iran before finishing it due to pressure from Washington.

The promise

War broke out in Ukraine in February 2022, causing heavy losses to the T-72 troops early on. This prompted a swift increase in production to make up for the losses suffered during the conflict. 

Dmitry Medvedev, ex-president and present Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, firmly stated in March 2023, “We plan to build 1,500 tanks this year itself. Consider the effect this would have on our adversaries, even in the best-case scenarios.” Medvedev’s statement came soon after he praised the strengths of the updated T-90M model, a variant of the T-72, which had learned valuable lessons from the Ukraine warfare. This indicated a potential large-scale production of the T-90M. 

Early 2024 saw an announcement from the Defense Ministry stating, “The Land Forces recently acquired over 1,500 new and improved tanks, and more than 2,500 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles.” Since only the T-90M and T-14 tanks are currently being made [with the T-14 produced in limited amounts], this points to a major increase in the production of the T-90M.

The reality

Russia’s tank production capabilities, dating back to the Soviet era, have the potential to produce more than 7000 units of T-72s and T-80s per year during wartime. With this in mind, it may sound reasonable that Russia could ramp up T-90 production to over 1000 units, considering the T-90 is a simpler version of the T-72. 

But, a closer look at Russian tank production reveals a different picture. When Russia created its first group of 270 T-90Ms in 2017, it turned out that most were upgraded versions of older T-90s. Less than a third were brand new. However, these were presented as new deliveries, creating an image of increased tank production. 

Moreover, Russia’s defense sector has been upgrading and modernizing Soviet-era tanks stored away, at a rate of more than 100 per month, greatly enhancing their combat capabilities. These upgraded tanks were then dubbed as new deliveries, seemingly boosting the defense sector’s claim of “producing 1500 tanks.”

The facts

If we take a closer look at the numbers surrounding the T-90M tank, it’s clear that deliveries are barely surpassing 200. This is only a small increase from the yearly pre-war production rate of around 130 units. 

Western sources, on the other hand, suggest an even lower delivery rate of only 60 per year. Yet such a steep drop in production seems highly unlikely, especially when you consider how frequently these vehicles are seen in Ukraine and the large stockpile of supply chains the Russian industry holds to protect its production abilities. 

While the situation isn’t as dire as many Western sources make it out to be, the production of T-90Ms is still less than what was initially expected. The reality falls short of the hundreds of tanks forecasted to roll off production lines every year, let alone the massive scales of production seen during the Soviet era. 

This is a stark contrast to the notable progress made by the missile industry in increasing the production of resources like Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles and Iskander-M systems. 

In the years following the Soviet era, there was a strong focus on the missile industry due to its perceived importance. Tanks, however, were often overlooked. The reason behind this neglect was the large number of tanks left over from the Soviet era and their low strategic deterrence value in light of their high cost.

Expectations remain

Vehicle production rates faced some delays, but these were temporary. In the long run, it’s forecasted that these rates will increase steadily. 

In September, the Defence Ministry announced plans to restart the production of the Soviet T-80 tank at Omsktransmash. This is a significant move. There are also plans to reactivate a second production unit to return Uralvagonzavod to its full capacity progressively. 

Since June 2023, Ukraine has struggled to target Russian positions, which has lessened the urgency for the rapid production of new vehicles. This is due to Russian forces skilfully outflanking Ukrainian tanks. They’ve effectively used strategies and assets like Kornet portable missiles, mines, artillery, and Ka-52 attack helicopters. 

Although Ukraine’s military appears less potent, Russia remains focused on strengthening its tank production. This determination primarily stems from its long-term strategy against NATO, considering the likelihood of continued heightened tensions.

The Russian army will remain large

The rise in tank production in Russia has led NATO countries like Turkey and Poland to step up their own tank manufacturing in Eastern Europe. They plan to buy about 1000 advanced K2 tanks each from South Korea. Interestingly, these tanks have better features compared to Russia’s T-90M tanks and the Challenger 2, Leopard 2, and M1 Abrams tanks made in Europe and America. 

After the Ukraine conflict, the Russian Army is expected to grow significantly. This is mainly due to the addition of Eastern Ukrainian militias. With the new production of T-90 and T-80 tanks, Russia can easily replace the less effective Soviet-era tanks like the T-62s that were brought back into service to increase their numbers. 

The revival of regular income from T-90 exports has led to the restart of production, which exceeds the Army’s orders. This renewed ability to produce tanks will provide opportunities to supply allied countries such as Belarus, India, and Algeria.

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