West told Zelensky that the war with Russia will not be won
WASHINGTON, US — In stark contrast to public statements, the leaders of France and Germany think otherwise. French President Mr. Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Mr. Olaf Scholz believe that Ukraine cannot win the war with Russia. What’s more: in a private conversation with Ukrainian President Mr. Volodymyr Zelensky, they told him exactly that. The two propose that Mr. Zelensky start peace negotiations.
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This news is reported by Mr. Joe Lauria of Consortium News. He refers to a report by the American media outlet The Wall Street Journal, which published its report. According to the claims, the three leaders (of France, Germany, and Ukraine) had a private conversation at the Elysée Palace just days ago.
The Journal’s report says private doubts are well masked by public rhetoric. This analysis is for senior politicians from Great Britain, France, and Germany, the publication writes. There are doubts that Ukraine will be able to expel the Russian armed forces from the already conquered territories, including Crimea. According to The Journal, politicians in third countries strongly doubt that Ukraine will get Crimea back. The Journal report writes that the West can to some extent support Ukraine, but if the conflict settles into a “dead end” this aid will no longer have an effect.
Mr. Joe Lauria recalls in materials are some realistic comments that were quickly forgotten “because of the public rhetoric”. In recent years, for example, some senior commanding officers of the NATO forces have called not to “rattle unnecessary weapons on the border with Russia, where negotiations are taking place.”
Mr. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who was the Minister of Foreign Affairs in Germany during those years, spoke precisely in such a context. “We are advised not to create a pretext for renewing an old confrontation,” he said, adding that it would be “fatal to seek only military solutions and a policy of deterrence.” He said all this about the relationship between the West and Russia during a period in which the largest Western exercises took place along the border with Russia in 75 years. I.e. in 2016.
That same year, another senior NATO military official spoke of realism, not populism, and political “suicide.” General Peter Pavel, NATO’s commander at the time, said at the time that “NATO’s goal is not to create a military barrier against large-scale Russian aggression, because such aggression is not on the agenda and the intelligence assessment does not suggest so.”
Today in the year 2023, it seems that realism is returning again among some Western leaders, be it in “private hidden conversations”. Russia has shown that it is ready to wage an all-out war. The question is not Ukraine, but whether the West is ready for such a war too?
At this point, official Washington is silent on The Journal’s report. There has been no reaction, but statements are also starting to come out of the Capitol, starkly contrasting the public rhetoric. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said nearly a month ago that the world should start thinking “about the post-war daily life and security of Ukraine”.
Is peace being thought of? Definitely yes. The public is currently busy watching Russian and Ukrainian propaganda, and this works in favor of behind-the-scenes decisions. And there will be one. Whether it will be this year or next – time will tell. But we should not take out of the equation the Russian President, Mr. Vladimir Putin, who will also have the floor.
Israel’s prime minister in 2022, Mr. Naftali Bennett, said in a podcast interview that on several occasions, Mr. Putin refused to accept peace. I.e. according to Mr. Bennett, Putin believes he will win.
According to The Journal’s report, not only Putin believes he will win, but so the advisers in political circles. The publication quoted its political source as saying that “besides proposals to Ukraine, NATO should think about a political victory for Zelensky, which he can present at home.” You realize that a political victory is not a victory in a war, but a compromise presented to the public in favor of Ukraine.
At the moment, Europe hopes that Ukraine will make an offensive on the front. However, this offensive must be successful. Because only in this way, Mr. Putin will be forced to sit at the negotiating table. But is the West asking itself, what will happen if this offensive is not successful?
Russia has so far given no signals that it is ready to sit down to negotiate. This is evident in the statement of Geopolitical analyst Mr. Alexander Mercouris from last Saturday. According to him, Moscow is more ready to fight than to negotiate.
It is in the speech of Mr. Mercuris that one can see the huge breakthrough in the policy of the Ukrainian allies. I.e. when Russia wins, they talk about negotiations. Then, if Ukraine is losing the war, what is the use of Russia sitting down for negotiations? I.e. Russia faces a weakened opponent. Why give Ukraine a chance to strengthen through peace negotiations, the Russian analyst believes.
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