Offensive spot: Russian 41st Combined Arms Army is 13 km to Ukraine
A team of Russian and foreign journalists, together with the assistance of Russian citizens, put together a picture of the movement of equipment from the 41st Russian Army towards Ukraine. They suggest that in the event of a possible Russian occupation of Ukraine from this area, the Russian military will carry out a deep invasion of Kyiv.
The opinions expressed below, together with the attached photos, show the situation in the Bryansk region on 6 and 7 February. BulgarianMilitary.com publishes the comments from the Telegram channel and does not engage in any way with the expressed opinions or assumptions.
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BRYANSK, ORYOL, ($1=75.27 Russian Rubles) — Journalists from France Télévisions [the France TV Europe tweet bellow] visited the settlements of Klintsy and Klimovo in the Bryansk region [45 and 13 km from the border with Ukraine, respectively] and filmed footage of the ongoing collection of Russian equipment there. The arrangement of field camps in this area began last year, but in recent weeks activity in Klintsi and Klimovo [first link opens TikTok video, seconf link opens Twitter video] has resumed. Recent radar images [thermal image bellow, source] also indicate the arrival of new equipment and/or personnel.
In a report on French television, we noticed several trucks with registration numbers with double-digit codes 76 and 87. On black military numbers, these codes correspond to the Central Military District [CVO]. It is worth noting here that for a long time we have not seen direct evidence of equipment being transferred west of Russia from Siberia and the Urals. However, the equipment of the Central Military District, and in particular the 41st General Army, has been close to Ukraine since April last year, when it was transferred to the Pogonovo test site near Voronezh [Picture #1]. In October, she was relocated to the Elnya region [Picture #2] of the Smolensk region, where she was on January 19th. [Picture #3]
However, a recent Twitter user @danvan71 [the link opens Twitter post] noticed that the parking lots of vehicles in the Yellinsky camp were almost empty, while activity in the tent city, by contrast, was increasing. In addition, the movement of convoys between the Smolensk and Bryansk regions was noted earlier. So, one of the videos [the link opens TikTok video] shows Msta-B howitzers towed by KAMAZ-63501AT Medved tractors and Ural-4320 trucks, as well as BTR-82 armored personnel carriers in various camouflage models. On the license plates of the cars, you can see the two-digit code 76, corresponding to the Central Military District. The same or a very similar column appears in another video [the link opens a video in BulgarianMilitary.com Telegram channel] geolocated in the Kazyonnoye-Uzkoye region on the border of Bryansk and Smolensk regions.
In addition, there are data on the transfer of equipment from Elnya by rail. The video [the link opens Twitter post], published by a TikTok user from the Bryansk region, shows a train carrying side number BMP-2 with paint. According to the Russian Railways database, this train left Elnya station. The train with the same BMP-2 and other equipment was filmed in Bryansk [the link opens Twitter post], probably on the route in Novozibkov, Bryansk region [the link opens Twitter post].
The transfer of columns of equipment from the Central Military District between the Smolensk and Bryansk regions, the movement of at least one echelon in the same direction, the filling of camps in the southern part of Bryansk with the disappearance of equipment from Elnya, and trucks with CVO numbers photographed by French television in the areas of Klintsy and Klimovo, collectively suggests that the equipment of the 41st Army from Elnya is transferred to the border with the Chernihiv region of Ukraine. These assumptions are confirmed by our source, who is familiar with the situation in the Elninsk camp.
Separately, the France Télévisions report initially shows a tanker with military registration code 15 assigned to the Russian Guard, as well as BTR-80 armored personnel carriers in camouflage typical of the National Guard [VNG]. Another video [the link opens Tiktok video], published by a resident of the Bryansk region, shows two armored vehicles based in the Urals with yellow reflective stripes on the sides, similar to which we also regularly observed in the Russian Security Columns.
The presence of VNG forces in the area, together with the accumulation of equipment from two armies at once [41st and 20th, located northeast of Ukraine] suggests that one of the scenarios for a possible Russian operation could be an offensive from the Bryansk region deep in Ukraine, most likely in the direction of Chernihiv and further, probably Kyiv [according to earlier reports by Western intelligence on the Kremlin’s plans to change power in Ukraine].
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