Iranian troops on the border with Azerbaijan. Is a new conflict forthcoming?

By TOC

TEHRAN, ($1=42,190.00 Iranian Rials) – Iran is not satisfied with Azerbaijan’s military-technical cooperation with Israel, Iran is not satisfied with Baku’s infrastructure projects that could “cut off” the way to Armenia. Therefore, Tehran switched to “brandishing weapons”, although it seems that Baku and Ankara were ready for such a scenario.

Iranian troops on the border with Azerbaijan. Is a new conflict looming?
Photo credit: Defense Express

If we summarize the available publications in the foreign media, we can see such a disposition of the conflict that is currently erupting between Iran and Azerbaijan.

Iran’s armed forces have launched military maneuvers on the border with Azerbaijan, learned BulgarianMilitary.com, citing Defense Espress. Iran will use armored units, artillery, UAVs, and EW units to conduct maneuvers on the border with Azerbaijan, and that these maneuvers are “a way to increase combat readiness.” How many soldiers and equipment will be involved in these exercises – Iran does not disclose, but as well as the planned duration of these maneuvers – also remains unknown.

The purpose of these exercises – Tehran wants to force Azerbaijan to abandon military-technical cooperation with Israel.

Tehran also wants Azerbaijan to abandon the implementation of its infrastructure projects in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, namely the construction of a transport corridor from the Nakhichevan Autonomy to the rest of the country; it seems to “cut off” Armenia’s land connection with Iran.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev responded to Iran in the following form. Aliyev commented to the Turkish news agency Anadolu, in which he stated that Baku considers as its citizens the 25,000 Armenians living in the territory of Nagorno Karabakh, which is now controlled by the “peacekeeping forces” of the Russian Federation.

Therefore, there will be no restoration of Karabakh’s autonomy, Azerbaijan will not change the format of the current management of the conquered territories.

It is unlikely that conditions will be met under which Baku will abandon current contracts for the purchase of weapons in Israel worth a total of 620 million dollars.

These are mainly the purchase of additional Harop and Harpy kamikaze drones, and the purchase of ammunition for Lynx multiple rocket launchers. Optionally, it is possible to purchase additional Barak 8 SAMs, which were able to reliably cover Baku from a possible attack by the Armenian Iskander-E missile systems [which could well belong to the Russian army].

And here there are two possible scenarios. With the support of Turkey, Azerbaijan will be able to “correct the picture of the world” for Iran’s military-political leadership using diplomatic influence, and “brandishing weapons” will stop.

And here, it seems, Ankara is ready to provide Baku with all the necessary “informational” support.

Or the “picture of the world” for Iran’s military-political leadership will worsen even more, and Tehran will start a “big war” against Azerbaijan. Moreover, formally Iran has an advantage in the number of armed forces – up to 600 thousand servicemen, while Azerbaijan – about 200 thousand servicemen.

But it seems that this is exactly the case Azerbaijan and Turkey have conducted many joint maneuvers aimed at strengthening synergies between the armies of the two countries. The most recent example is the Sokol TurAz-2021 exercise in September 2021, in which Turkish F-16s and Azerbaijani Su-25s and MiG-29s learned to jointly destroy enemy aircraft and air defenses and hit targets in the enemy’s rear.

BulgarianMilitary.com will continue to monitor developments in the region.

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