Is a war between the US and Iran possible? What do the experts say?
ZAGREB, MOSCOW – The United States may want revenge after a failed mission in Afghanistan and start a war with Iran, according to an analyst on the Croatian website Advance.
He said Israel could be the instigator of this battle, which is preventing Washington from returning to a nuclear deal with Tehran. Israel may want to provide the Americans with some data on the development of nuclear weapons in Iran. Such actions could serve as a pretext for starting a war, the publication said.
Analysts note that the United States is not the first to engage in an armed confrontation over unconfirmed intelligence. Such cases have already occurred in Libya and Iraq. According to the authors of Advance, Washington will not dare to undertake a full-scale invasion, but there will be missile strikes on Iranian targets. This will force Tehran to capitulate and the United States will win this “victorious war” to rehabilitate itself in some way after the failure in Afghanistan, Croatia said.
Russia’s response to such an opportunity
The conclusion that Iran could easily fall victim to the United States for a new victorious war set out in an article by Croatian author Anton Roca in Advance, is untrue. Judging by the superficial assessment of the situation, this Roca does not have the necessary competence. He may have made an analogy between Serbia in 1999 and today’s Iran. Belgrade’s senseless capitulation following NATO missile attacks does not prove at all that war can in principle be won only by bombing.
Experts say – until a soldier’s foot enters the enemy’s territory, he does not conquer. By the way, even the conquest of enemy territory is not a sign of final victory. This is achieved at a time when the enemy is deprived not only of the army but also of the will to resist. These are the general truths of the art of war. And they are unknown not only to Anton Roca but also to many generals in the US military. Otherwise, America would not lose the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan. However, the US victory in Iraq cannot be considered complete either; local authorities are already brutally pointing the door at the Yankees.
What would happen in a war between the United States and Iran?
Let’s assess the US capabilities in the war with Iran and vice versa. Yes, it will not be difficult for Washington to assemble an anti-Iranian coalition that will be happy to include the Gulf monarchies, Israel, NATO countries and partners, Turkey and Azerbaijan.
But the problem is that America has shamefully fled Afghanistan and thus lost important strategic support for the war against Iran.
It can now use its bases in Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Diego Garcia island. The airports of Israel, Turkey, and Azerbaijan will be available. In addition, the Pentagon can accommodate up to six strike groups of carriers in the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan may provide their territories for the deployment of interspecific groups or at least formations of the US Air Force. But, as we see, the ring is not closed.
Iran cooperates closely with China and Russia, it is natural that Tehran will receive assistance from these countries, especially from China, which has already begun large-scale investments in Iran’s transport system, within 25 years their level should reach $ 400 billion aid to the PRC will pass through Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is worth bearing in mind that Iran itself has a high military potential, and relying on protest movements in that country is a mistake. Americans declaring strong opposition in the Islamic Republic, as always, deceive themselves and their allies by betraying what they want.
Iran’s air and missile defense system has recently been significantly modernized and given a deep, tiered formation. The bombing of military facilities located in the mountains, as the practice of recent wars shows, is not very effective. Certainly, Iran has already prepared the way for a covert maneuver of forces and means. Most of its military equipment can only be destroyed through the use of US, NATO, and partner ground forces, but even Rocha calls it impossible. Using Special Operations Forces [MTRs], Iran can easily counter. By the way, the legends of superpowers of the special forces of the United States, Britain, France, and Israel have remained in the distant past. In addition, they will have the opportunity to assess their strength with MTR fighters from China, Russia, and Iran.
In response to the actions of the aggressor, Tehran is unequivocally using its solid missile arsenal. It will be bad for everyone who provides their territory for the basing of American forces/troops. I foresee that, to the joy of Armenia, Azerbaijan will suffer especially in this case. The Islamic Republic will be supported by Hezbollah, whose rocket arsenal, according to Israel, exceeds 1,000 missiles. In addition, this organization has numerous branches in different countries. In turn, Iran will launch the formation of “Quds” – special forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Numerous Quds and Hezbollah groups will operate effectively behind coalition lines.
It turns out that the earth will burn under the feet of the American military and coalition forces. Numerous coffins with corpses will fly to America and further down the list. By the way, at the very first decisive retaliatory actions of Iran, this coalition will begin to fall apart, the Arab allies will be the first to break away. Further, with the growth of losses, the flight from the coalition will become widespread. In the end, the United States itself, considering that the level of losses has become unacceptable, will abandon this possible new military adventure. And the problems will be raked by the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel.
It turns out that America should by no means get involved in a war with Iran on its territory. Moreover, this could lead to a new geopolitical alignment in the Middle East, completely unfavorable for Washington.
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