Kabul will collapse. An Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is born
KABUL, BM, ($1= 79.24 Afgahn Afghanis) – In recent weeks, I have been constantly trying to prove my theory that the departure of American troops from Afghanistan will only bring betrayal to the civilian population, and the chances of this country becoming an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan are growing by the minute.
As much as Donald Trump and Joe Biden are opposites, they are similar, especially in some terms of foreign military policy. In the years to come, American society and the world must be reminded of an indisputable fact – Donald Trump only wanted the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, leaving the government in Kabul to his fate, and Joe Biden follows exactly this line from his predecessor. Remember this fact when the government in Kabul collapses in six months.
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Why do I think so? I have a US intelligence report in my hands, which clearly outlines the Taliban’s current military strategy. It’s simple and effective – the Afghan army is well-armed thanks to the United States, so the Taliban currently have no appetite for the major Afghan cities where the Afghan army is located. On the other hand, the Taliban are taking over territories and small towns close to major centers, thus controlling almost everything – communications, transport, supplies, supplies.
According to Tamim Asey, head of the Institute of War and Peace Studies in Kabul and a former deputy defense minister, ‘In a maximalist sense, the Taliban wants a total military victory… In a minimalist sense, once the Taliban has tested government forces and realized that a total military victory is not within reach then it will use violence as leverage to secure further concessions at the negotiation table. ‘
Ultimately, Afghanistan’s future depends on the Taliban. The government in Kabul may not collapse due to military force. It is more likely to collapse once the Taliban set their terms and become part of a future coalition government that will change the country’s social and social course and turns the country into an Islamic Afghan emirate.
Many US experts say the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan is just as humiliating as it was in 1975 when the United States left Vietnam defeated. Joe Biden is trying to convince the public that the job is done – the terrorists responsible for 9/11 have been eliminated and the attempt to make Afghanistan a center of terrorists in the world has been thwarted. It was a very strange statement after it became clear that the Taliban now controlled more territory since a US soldier first entered Afghanistan in 2001. Another indisputable fact is that before if there were two or three terrorist groups, today, after the withdrawal of The US from the Asian country has at least twenty.
Historically, this fact finds its meaning in the two decades of American soldiers in the country. With such a long period, it is simply illogical not to have a kind of “guerrilla” brigades and any pro-patriotic armed formations. All this, combined with the hatred of the natives towards the Americans, gave rise to actions against them, which at a later stage Western society would call a “terrorist act against a US military base in Afghanistan” and thus legitimize it as terrorism.
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Of course, Joe Biden left an open door, saying the United States would continue to support its Afghan friends with a tactic called “beyond the horizon” – the supply of drones and weapons to Afghan troops. Biden firmly believes that ‘highly unlikely’ that ‘there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country. But this, of course, is for the public. The realities are different. Ask the US intelligence.
Afghanistan’s fate tends to collapse economically and religiously, something the country has already seen since the war with Russia. And the countries it borders on – Iran, India, Russia, Pakistan, and China – are embroiled in conflicts and complex relations – something that will seriously affect the Afghan people and the future of that country.
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