Will Iran attack the Americans on their territory in revenge?
PANAGYURISHTE, (BM) – Will Iran attack the Americans on their territory as a kind of revenge is a question we must ask ourselves. Iran has been hit twice in the last 12 months. One was the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] Qasem Soleimani, on January 3, 2020. The other was very recently – the assassination of the chief nuclear scientist of the Republic of Iran – Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. While the second murder is said to be the Israeli job, the murder of Suleimani is the work of the Americans. The US administration has never denied the murder.
To answer the main question, we need to answer a few second-rate ones, which are:
- Can Iran attack the Americans on their territory with terrorist attacks with its forces?
- Can Iran attack the Americans on their part with terrorist attacks using mercenaries?
- When is it most appropriate for such an attack to happen?
- If Iran is planning such an attack, will it do it?
Carrying out Iranian terrorist acts with Iranian agents, military or sleeping cells
This option is very little assessed as possible. The use of one’s forces in the person of Iranian agents or Iranian-trained soldiers in the United States is challenging to use for several reasons.
In the first place, the CIA monitors communications in the Middle East. Interception of encrypted messages with such information would quickly reach Washington. For its part, the Pentagon would react swiftly and remove the threat in its infancy. I.e., Iranian suspects’ actions and their movement to the United States will not be allowed or will be thwarted.
On the other hand, Iran can use its sleeping cells in the United States or the country. Travelers from Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, or one of the “paradise island nations” are less suspicious. This option is more comfortable to implement because the communication between the participants in the attack will conduct from entirely different points on the planet, which are not active on the “radar” for terrorist acts.
Another advantage for the bombers is that forming a group of 10-15 terrorists who arrived from five or six countries does not include the “alarm” of intelligence. But if the group formes of people coming from one or two countries simultaneously, it is suspicious and would attract attention.
In second place is the work of the National Security Agency [NSA] within the United States. If the CIA cannot officially operate in the United States, the NSA has every right to do so. For some reason, these 10-15 people have entered the United States at some point; they will either have to communicate or position themselves in an area where they locate. Besides on a region with a small perimeter. Such action by newly arrived “Iranian terrorists” will now attract the ANS’s attention to them. Tracking their movement, purchases, financing, communication, activity, and building a logical map of behavior are some of the ANS tools that would be useful.
However, the question is quite different if the Iranian state plans an attack using sleeping cells. There are such. They are challenging to detect and very often established only after the attack. Society must accept one inevitable fact – the Cold War ended only on paper. It never stopped. And this process has always been multifaceted. Russian, Iranian, Iraqi, Afghan, Arabic, French, Israeli, German, etc. – In the United States, there are sleeping cells from almost all countries. The opposite is true in full force – the United States also has sleeping cells around the world.
Iranian sleeping cells are the only possible scenario if Iran wants to use its forces to attack US territory. But who uses their agents nowadays when money can provide mercenaries. This point of view refers us to the second possible scenario.
Carrying out Iranian terrorist acts through mercenaries
The wars in recent months in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh have opened the eyes of many unsuspecting people. They could not believe that other people of another nationality would fight for someone else’s cause. However, we know that these are the facts because we write about them every day, and it is no surprise. The lack of funds for a decent life is the main reason people risk their lives.
This possibility is perhaps the most appropriate option for Iran (not just Iran) to commit a terrorist act on foreign soil. Mercenaries can be anything from foreigners to “local American patriots.” History in America shows that the second type of mercenary is also a relatively well-functioning living organism. Many Americans disagree with the country’s policy, with its attitude towards them, with its foreign countries’ perspective. But many Americans believe that US security is weak and are willing to prove it.
In this case, the US government finds it very difficult, even impossible, to intercept such mercenaries’ activity. Especially if they are the ones who want to prove themselves for the first time, they are off the national intelligence radar and would not arouse interest. The only more logical way to intercept such an organizational structure is the bank transfers from the guarantor and between them. But for that to happen, the ANS and the CIA need to know where and what to look for. Because for years, the financing does not come directly from the state guarantor but goes through hundreds of transactions, which at one point launder the money.
Yes, Iran can carry out a terrorist attack in the United States using mercenaries. And yes, almost 90% are sure that it will be successful.
The question is – what, when, and where? When is the best time for such an attack to happen?
I will answer you quite honestly – in the next 24 hours or on January 20. President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris expected to swear in the US constitution on January 20 and take over the country. An assassination attempt in the area of the ceremony is almost impossible.
But assassinations in the country, when the whole country’s attention focuses on taking office, are entirely logical. In 24 hours, on January 6, Americans will hold a large rally to support current President Donald Trump and challenge the election results. Washington expects to be blocked again because of the protest. Biden / Harris supporters are also likely to hold a rally. In this way, the two political factions of public opinion will oppose each other once again. But for the terrorist, it doesn’t matter. It is essential for him that a clear political message or revenge would be appropriate to go where there is a large crowd.
An attack in the heart of the protest, or the “orbit” of the protest, will wreak havoc, fear. But the most dangerous thing is that the protest could escalate to unprecedented proportions and shake the country in the coming hours to the point of using real military force against the Americans.
Is it possible for these two scenarios to happen – why not. The terrorist does not recognize logic, freedom, or other people’s interests. He is there to act according to his idea and worldview, not according to others.
So will Iran make such an attack?
In reality, Iran has the means, capabilities, and authority to make each of the opportunities mentioned above for a terrorist attack. But Iran will not do that, or at least it will not take responsibility.
The answer is straightforward. The moment Iran launches such an attack and takes responsibility for it, it automatically directs global anger against Tehran. Right now, with the UN arms embargo on Iran lifted and the government free to buy weapons and technology, it makes no sense for Tehran to take a risk that would isolate the country for at least decades to come. But Iran may respond in another way – bombing US military bases in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. Such an act in the region of the conflict would be accepted as part of the war itself.
US embassies are attacked almost every two months in the region. In this situation, even other US countries or partners would turn a blind eye. The question then is not whether Iran can carry out a terrorist attack in response to the general and the scientist’s assassination, but what response it expects to achieve?
Because in 2001, Osama bin Laden could also attack American embassies. He didn’t do it for that reason – he wanted to show the United States that they are not untouchable even across the ocean. And he achieved it. Today, Iran is making the next move. And Iran can hide it, but with significant repercussions.
Will Iran does anything at all against the Americans on their territory? I don’t think so!
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