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Threat or warning from Turkey: Karabakh will become a second Syria for Russia

ANKARA, (BM) – Tensions in the unrecognized republic and still Azerbaijani territory of Nagorno-Karabakh continue to escalate on a daily basis, leading to even clearer opportunities for third countries to take stronger and more decisive action in the military conflict. We are talking about the two opposites – Russia and Turkey.

Read more: BulgarianMilitary.com 24/7 – All about Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

BulgarianMilitary.com learned that dozens of pro-government Turkish media have made clear and unequivocal comments about the possibility of Turkey launching heavy hostilities on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. According to analysts in Ankara and Istanbul, Erdogan and the Turkish people will have every right to launch a heavy military offensive and take part in the conflict if the Russian side does the same and tries to protect the Armenian people by direct intervention. Many media outlets do not rule out the real possibility that “Nagorno-Karabakh can become a second Syria for Russia.”

The Daily Sabah makes a detailed political-military analysis of the situation and military actions in Nagorno-Karabakh. It is noted that Moscow has so far twice tried to play the role of mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but without any success. At the same time, according to the newspaper, Yerevan criticized Russia for its passive action in the conflict, trying to involve it in it by playing the “Armenian card”. At the same time, analysts say that talks between Mike Pompeo and the representatives of Armenia and Azerbaijan will not bring the long-awaited short-lived goals, let alone long-term ones.

Turkish media claim that the main idea of ​​Yerevan is to turn the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from a regional to an international one. It is also interesting that Armenia wants the international community to recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, but Yerevan has not done so so far, thus clearly not realizing what signal Yerevan is giving to the world with its unwillingness to recognize the independence of the people living in the mountainous regions of this part of Azerbaijan.

The Turkish analysts conclude that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s desire to turn Nagorno-Karabakh into an international conflict could turn against Moscow and mean a second conflict for Putin, just like in Syria.

Military analysts on the other side of the Bosphorus say that if Yerevan’s actions to resolve the issue of military force, rather than peacefully, continue, there is a very real possibility that Russian troops and military equipment at the Gyumri military base will become hostages. and even be involved “deliberately by Armenia” in the conflict. Russian analysts also point to this fact, but they are focused on Turkey’s provocative actions. Many Moscow experts say the possible “hostage” of the Russian military in Gyumri is half the problem for Russia.

The second half could be the illogical actions of destruction and raids among the civilian population of pro-Turkish Syrian mercenaries transported from northern Syria, who are more likely to act irresponsibly than in Ankara’s plan, triggering the creation of possible terrorist cells in Nagorno-Karabakh..

A Russian journalist with the Moscow edition of the Reporter says that Yerevan does not listen to Moscow’s advice and continues to take military action at a time when Moscow wants peace. However, this could be a double-edged sword for Yerevan, as Moscow has so far refused Russian military intervention in the region, precisely because of the aggressive action of Armenia on the one hand, and the unrecognized Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh by Russia on the other. There is a real possibility that Russia will lose an ally in the face of Armenia, which would lead to the collapse of the CSTO, the publication notes.

The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh escalated on September 27, active clashes are taking place in the disputed territory. Martial law was introduced in Azerbaijan and Armenia, and mobilization was announced. Both sides reported killed and wounded, including civilians. In Baku, they announced the control of several Karabakh villages and strategic heights. Yerevan also reports about the shelling of the territory of Armenia.

War in Syria

In February, Turkey lost at least 62 troops killed in Syria, nearly 100 soldiers were wounded, dozens of Turkish armored vehicles were destroyed and more than ten drones, including drone, were shot down. Washington has repeatedly accused Moscow of involvement in the deaths of Turkish soldiers, Russia rejects these allegations.

In early March, the presidents of Russia and Turkey, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, concluded an agreement according to which a ceasefire came into force in the Idlib de-escalation zone. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad later said that if the US and Turkish military did not leave the country, Damascus would be able to use force.

The reason for the Russian-Turkish negotiations was a sharp aggravation of the situation in Idlib, where in January a large-scale offensive by the Syrian army against the positions of the armed opposition and terrorists began.

Government forces recaptured nearly half of the Idlib de-escalation zone and left behind a number of Turkish observation posts. After that, Ankara sharply increased its military contingent in the region and launched the operation “Spring Shield” to push the Syrian troops. Turkey is also supported by militants loyal to it.

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