Nagorno-Karabakh: Russia and Turkey will be at war, if Article 4 of CSTO is activated
ATHENS, (BM) – The situation in Nagorno Karabakh and the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan may soon change 180 degrees and things will end in a very short time, learned BulgarianMilitary.com.
It is about the Collective Security Treaty Organization [CSTO – ed.], in which Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are members. Like Article 5 of the NATO Collective Agreement, this organization also has an equivalent and it is enshrined in Art. 4 of the CSTO that the members of the organization must provide assistance if one of these members is territorially threatened by external military intervention.
If we exclude Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan from the equation, as well as Belarus due to internal problems, it turns out that at some point Russia may find itself at war with Azerbaijan and Turkey, which, among other things, has officially stated that it will support Baku.
Of course, the activation of Art. 4 of the Collective Security Treaty Organization takes place after an official application, which must be submitted by Yerevan and discussed at a meeting between the participants in the organization.
Military experts say Armenia has every reason to release the application and get support from participants after Azerbaijanis attacked a bus carrying civilians on Armenian territory in the city of Vardenis, as well as the Armenian Su-25 fighter shot down earlier today. [the location of the incident is still being specified – ed.].
Russia’s possible confrontation with Turkey explains the reaction of the official authorities in Ankara, who hurried to refute the information about an Armenian fighter shot down by them.
So far, one thing is clear – Yerevan has not yet submitted a formal application for activation of Art. 4 of the specific contract. According to ARMENPRESS, the representative of the CSTO alliance Vladimir Zaidindinov said that the discussion of the issue requires a formal request from Armenia, which is expected.
“In order to discuss this issue in the CSTO, it is necessary for Armenia to submit a request about it.” he said.
The situation is not so easy and simple to solve, because according to some military sources and experts, the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is not dictated by the Azeris, but hidden under the table by Turkey. If true, Erdogan could solve two problems with this move: increasing his popularity as a politician, which has been severely shaken by the economic crisis in Turkey, and, of course, directing Russian efforts to Nagorno-Karabakh, hopefully Putin to weaken the snare in Syria and Libya.
From the Kremlin’s point of view, Armenia is Russia’s backyard, and Moscow would not miss an opportunity to solve the problems in its own backyard, as the agreement in the Organization gives Putin a great opportunity to face Erdogan directly.
The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh escalated on September 27, active clashes are taking place in the disputed territory. Martial law was introduced in Azerbaijan and Armenia, and mobilization was announced. Both sides reported killed and wounded, including civilians. In Baku, they announced the control of several Karabakh villages and strategic heights. Yerevan also reports about the shelling of the territory of Armenia.
Azerbaijan and Armenia have been in conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh since February 1988, when the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region announced its withdrawal from the Azerbaijan SSR.
During the armed conflict in 1992-1994, the Azerbaijani side lost control of Nagorno-Karabakh and the seven areas adjacent to it. Since 1992, negotiations have been conducted within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group on a peaceful settlement of the conflict. The group is led by co-chairs – Russia, USA and France.
In 1994, Azerbaijan, Armenia and the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, through the mediation of Russia, signed the Bishkek Armistice Protocol. At the same time, military operations did not stop there, which periodically renewed.
The most significant exacerbation of the conflict was the four-day war of 2016. Then hundreds of soldiers on both sides became victims.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, during a meeting with the President of Azerbaijan last year, called for a rhetoric that would go against the fundamental principles endorsed by both sides and enshrined in the UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act when resolving the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh.
At the same time, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry admitted that much more needs to be done to achieve a long-term political settlement.
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