Turkey once again ‘looked’ at the Russian Su-57s. Will this be the end of NATO?
PANAGYURISHTE, (BM) – With each passing day, the speculations are growing that the Turkish Republic can buy the latest generation Su-57 fighters, learned BulgarianMilitary.com citing sources on the Army-2020 exhibition.
This view is expressed by a number of military analysts around the world, including journalists from the American magazine National Interests.
We remind you that Russian representatives were again sent to the Army 2020 military exhibition in Russia, which intensified speculation and led a number of experts to think that Turkey might buy fighter jets.
If that happens, Turkey, not Russia, could be the country to end the NATO era. In recent years, the Alliance has been harshly criticized by both member states (France, the United States) and Russia. Only a few months ago, French President Emmanuel Macron announced in an official statement that NATO was brain dead. A number of heads of state disagreed with him. However, we, as analysts of the military industry around the world and military-political relations, may say for the third time that Macron is totally right and the critics are blind.
Turkey bought Russian S-400 air defense systems, putting an end to it, perhaps. Despite criticism from Erdogan by all NATO members, especially the United States, Erdogan signed a second contract a few days ago to supply a second batch of the same systems. Turkey is also said to be interested in next-generation S-500 air defense systems, which German experts say are systems that “launch” Russia 10 years ahead of the rest of the world.
Moreover, negotiations have been underway since last year for Turkey to become an active participant in Russia’s air defense by offering its services in the joint production of the S-400 and S-500 with Russia.
After Turkey was expelled from the F-35 program for this particular purchase, it is only logical to consider which direction Erdogan will look for fifth-generation fighters.
The European fighter Tempest is still under development. Prototyping, various tests and an unclear end result are yet to be built, so this option will be phased out in the coming years.
Turkey is also developing its own version of a fifth-generation aircraft – TAI TF-X. However, Erdogan’s desire to acquire such a fighter only tells us that the Turkish program is in its infancy. Let’s not forget that at the moment the Turks are experiencing financial difficulties and it is difficult to find public finances to speed up the development and testing of the fighter.
We personally do not find it logical for Ankara to focus on negotiations with China and the acquisition of their J-20. Therefore, the closest to a new fifth-generation fighter is South Korea, which recently published photos of the construction of the first prototype and an improved radar system of KAI KF-X. Turkey and South Korea have good relations, but so far there have been no signals from either Seoul or Ankara that negotiations are under way on such an acquisition.
And so Russia and their Su-57 are on the agenda again. the two countries have dozens of joint projects, especially in the field of natural gas.
It makes sense for Ankara to try to buy a Su-57. First, Erdogan has shown that sanctions would not threaten him, especially as he still holds the “ace” with military bases in the region. The expulsion of American troops from Incirlik will cost the United States much more than simply relocating troops from Germany to Poland. Here we are talking about an entire US army carrying out operations in the Middle East, which at some point may be asked to leave.
Of course, the United States has partners in the Middle East where to relocate, but most of these regions are in an uncertain hostile environment. Excluding Turkey from the equation will cost the United States the opportunity to inflict more material damage, supply more equipment and send more troops.
Second, Turkey has already bought the S-400, and if it does the same with the Su-57, there will be no need to change the communication link, as both products are Russian.
Third, the purchase or just a rumor about the purchase of the Su-57 could play a speculative trump card in Trump’s hand. The United States has so far failed completely in this area. They never understood Erdogan’s idea of becoming an independent local power that would play a significant economic and military role in three locations – Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
If, after all, Ankara buys a Su-57 from Moscow for NATO, there are only two real options left – with such a strong partner as Turkey, the alliance must decide how to act.
To cut the “growing tumor” in the heart of NATO by throwing Turkey out of it, or the alliance itself to disintegrate, as NATO has so far shown only passivity in decision-making and action.
Will Turkey end NATO? Hardly, but it will be one of the main reasons.
Turkey wants it, but is the Su-57 ready?
According to the information we have in recent months, several things have happened with the development of the fighter in question at the Russian arms industrial complex.
First, the fighter has been involved in real combat missions in Syria at least three times. This, in turn, reinforced the fact that this aircraft was indeed a stealth, since the United States and partners did not even know at one point that the Su-57 was in Syria.
Read more: Top 5 best Russian fighter jets – 4++ and 5th generations
Second, the fighter passed all possible tests, including the final state tests, confirming its intended characteristics.
Third, Russia has already begun mass production of nearly 70 fighters for its own needs. More recently, photos of the assembly lines have been published.
This only says that no matter what happens, Russia will have this fighter in the next two years. Will Turkey not be next on the production line?
The time will tell us!
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