Idlib: Erdogan will try to take revenge from Assad and Putin in September
This post was published in Free Press. The point of view expressed in this article is authorial and do not necessarily reflect BM`s editorial stance.
MOSCOW, (BM) – A Russian-Turkish patrol in Idlib was attacked last Monday. There were no casualties, however, our Department of Defense was extremely concerned about the case. Moreover, he was so worried that immediately the next day she made a decision about retaliatory actions. As a result, on August 18, an air strike was launched on the positions of the militants in the province of Idlib.
Following this, the formations of the Syrian-Arab army and allied groupings became more active at the front-line positions. As a result, this resulted in hostilities with the separatist formations of Idlib. According to many sources, Assad plans to launch another major campaign against militants in northwestern Syria in the coming days.
There are enough reasons for this. In addition to the fact that the legitimate authorities are responsible for the territorial integrity of the state, they are obliged to do everything to preserve the life and health of their citizens. And such an abscess on the body of the republic, like Idlib, constantly threatens the security of the Syrians. The sluggish conflict, periodically flaring up, takes a large number of lives of Assad fighters and ordinary citizens.
Terrorists have also become more active lately. The explanation is quite simple. Recently, the Russian Aerospace Forces caused serious damage to their infrastructure. At least this information was circulated by the Syrian pro-government media. We are talking about the destruction of several warehouses with weapons and an entire factory for the production of unmanned aerial vehicles.
By the way, the militants have always had enough of the latter, which created many problems for the Russian contingent. The separatists’ UAVs carried out their endless attacks on the Russian-Syrian base Khmeimim. There have probably been at least a hundred such attacks in recent years – information about such attacks regularly appears in the media. There is little real harm from them, but they make us spend seriously – after all, far from the cheapest air defense resources are used to repel raids.
In general, both the Syrian authorities and their enemies want war, and it seems that each side is ready for it.
Two weeks ago, information appeared in the Syrian media that Damascus intends to finally end the ceasefire, because all the deadlines for pacifying the militants were out. And Ankara was supposed to calm them down. The Turks do not succeed at all, although they have been busy with this for several years.
Well, Erdogan had already paid for his sluggishness with the loss of almost half of the province of Idlib – not so long ago, the Assadists, having launched a counteroffensive, liberated the main sections of the M-4 and M-5 highways, and also drove the separatist forces much closer to the Turkish border.
Then Assad also harnessed for a long time, pouring threats, but never daring to act. All this was already beginning to sound like absurdity, and no one believed in these endless Chinese warnings. That is why the major offensive of the Syrian Arab army came as a complete surprise not only for outside observers, but even for the Turks, who, it seemed, should have been as vigilant as possible.
Nevertheless, they lost part of their observation posts, checkpoints and bases, and even several dozen soldiers went to the next world. And their allies from among the local opposition died in batches almost every day.
Preparations for war have long since begun. As mentioned above, clashes resumed on many sectors of the front, but so far these are local micro-battles, but it is obvious that something more awaits us. The fact is that Assad again pulled together large forces to the north and north-west of Aleppo, as well as to the areas of Idlib governorate occupied by government forces.
Turks do not sleep either. In the media on social networks, a photo recently appeared of how large Ankara forces are being transferred across the Turkish-Syrian border to Idlib. At the same time, over the past month, the Turks have been actively arming their loyal groups in Afrini and in the areas adjacent to the city of Aleppo from the north. Basically, this is the pro-Turkish Syrian army to the bone and marrow, which had previously been reborn several times and significantly strengthened. Is war really coming soon?
Russian political scientist and orientalist Karine Gevarkian believes that the operation is quite possible, only it is unlikely to take place in the summer, because autumn is a much more appropriate time.
Erdogan’s situation is not the easiest. His aggressive ambitions are bearing fruit, and this is not always good for him. Now he has many problems with foreign radicals, whom he, one might say, hired to achieve his goals. Many of them claim to be in the sun. Under the Turkish sun. Yes, they were promised not only money, but also Turkish citizenship.
Of course, Ankara does not want to accept them, because this will give rise to a mountain of problems, will lead to the aggravation of the already emerging serious destabilization, therefore, it is necessary to keep these militants in Syria, Libya or elsewhere with all our might, just not in Turkey. So his stubbornness towards Idlib is understandable, only here no one guarantees his success.
It’s all about the serious intentions of Damascus?
Yes, militarily, I think Assad is almost ready. His last success was at the beginning of the year. Planning and preparing a new high-quality campaign in such conditions usually takes seven to nine months. Consequently, the government army will finally be ready for a new war in the fall. At the same time, I will note that in this specific sense, the advantage is on the side of Assad, and not Erdogan.
Even now, the forces are at least equal, and other points of view imply the superiority of Damascus, on whose side, in addition to the army and militias, there are a lot of various Shiite forces – these are not only Iranians, but the entire Middle East international.
But I do not think that the war will begin tomorrow or in a week, although the forces are being pulled together. It is much more convenient to start a campaign towards the end of September. There is electoral fuss in the USA, Erdogan has similar internal political problems and so on. By the way, at this moment the Russian Federation may also be distracted and not follow the strict observance of agreements with Turkey.
We still have our own business here – Khabarovsk, Belarus, Navalny, and so on.
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