A Military Scenario If There Is a Conflict Between Israel and Iran
JERUSALEM, Israel (BulgarianMilitary.com) – A military confrontation between Iran and Israel will involve at least in the first phase, attacks on Israeli targets by Iranian upgraded rockets deployed in Lebanon, and counter attacks by Israeli air, sea and ground forces.
This is the assessment of Israeli experts that have referred to the warning made by Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif.
He accused Israel of engaging in “adventurism” with its bombing campaigns in Syria and said he could not rule out the possibility of a military conflict between the countries.
Zarif said that Iran’s presence in Syria is after it was invited by the Syrian government, while Israel was violating Lebanese and Syrian air space, as well as international law.
A new briefing by BICOM, “Hezbollah’s Precision Missile Project,” analyses Iran’s attempt to convert Hezbollah’s existing missiles into precision-guided missiles.
Hezbollah is estimated to have more than 100,000 missiles, but currently has only between 20 and 200 precision-guided missiles. This according to a new report of Britain –Israel communications & research center (BICOM).
Israeli attacks in Syria are aimed at disrupting the Iranian effort to make the rockets in the hands of the terror organization more accurate.
The precision project aims to upgrade its 14,000 Zelzal-2 missiles with precision guidance systems that would enhance their accuracy to 50m from their intended target with a range of 210km. Such a project could trigger war with Israel, who would be confronted with the dilemma as to whether to launch a pre-emptive strike and destroy Hezbollah missile factories or delay military action and risk facing a substantially more destructive missile threat to its critical infrastructure and population centers.
Hezbollah’s ‘precision project’ refers to its work to upgrade its missiles by improving their Circular Error Probability (CEP) to increase their accuracy. The firing of numerous missiles with a CEP of 10m – a range Iran has aimed for but has not achieved – means half of those will fall within 10m of the intended target.
The process of upgrading Zelzal 2 missiles involves fitting GPS guidance packs and transforming them into something similar to the Fatah 110 missile. These packs include a command and guidance system and a control system.
Hezbollah took control of Iranian-built factories to manufacture missiles and firearms in Lebanon in December 2016. The sites are located 50m underground to protect them from attack.
Estimates of how many precision missiles Hezbollah possess range from 20 to 200. Between 20-40 precision guided missiles with a CEP of 100m would destroy a specific, hardened military target with 75 per cent confidence. For softer targets, such as urban centres, the number of missiles required is significantly less.
The Israel Defence Forces estimate that in a future war Hezbollah could fire 1200 missiles a day from its arsenal at Israel.
Read more: What Is Iran Doing in Syria?
Israel is a small densely populated country with a small number of critical infrastructure sites. Israel has a multi-layered missile defence system – including Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 – alongside highly advanced radar systems.
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